Grain Market Daily



Alice Bailey, Analyst, AHDB Market Intelligence, 02476 478840




Bearish tones to maize markets

The upward trend in new-crop Chicago maize futures seen last week has been reversing this week. Monday (06 May) saw a bearish move in the market, which has continued throughout the week. Yesterday (09 May) a contract low was hit at $146.75/t (Dec-19), which remained unchanged as at 11.00am this morning. There are a number of factors currently weighing on maize markets, which will likely continue the bearish tone.  

According to the FAO May 2019 Food Outlook report, world maize production is forecast 2.3% up year-on-year, to 1,140Mt.

Each month this year CONAB has increased the Brazilian corn production estimates based on the crop conditions. In May the estimate for Brazilian Safrina crop sits at 69.15Mt, up from first estimate of 63.73Mt in November. Total Brazilian corn production is estimated at 95.25Mt.   

The Buenos Aires grain exchange reported yesterday, as of 08 May, 48.9% of corn was categorised as “Good-Excellent” condition. This is significantly up on last year, when just 11.8% was rated as “Good-Excellent”.  

US maize planting has been significantly slowed by high rainfall. As at 05 May, the USDA reported that planting was 23% completed, against last year’s 36%. However, previous years have proved that planting can occur rapidly and there is still time to catch up. The weather forecast looks to have settled a little across the Mid-West. With less rainfall expected over the next week, progress could be advanced.

Near by domestic barley prices have remained flat, and with these factors weighing on the global markets it is unlikely that they will see any support in the near future. 

Crop Conditions , Production Est

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