Grain Market Daily

MS Team - Peter Collier - Analyst - Arable - 024 7647 8851

Peter Collier, Analyst, AHDB Market Intelligence

Peter.Collier@ahdb.org.uk, 02476 478894

Alice Bailey

Alice Bailey, Analyst, AHDB Market Intelligence

Alice.Bailey@ahdb.org.uk, 02476 478840

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South American progress weighs on soyabean markets

The soyabean market has been on a downturn of late as large US stocks continue to weigh on markets. Additionally disruption to US maize planting could lead instead to a larger later planted soyabean area.

Further pressure has been added by South American crops. The Brazilian soyabean harvest is set to be the second largest on record according to Reuters. Moreover, the Argentinian soyabean harvest continues to progress well.

As such, the outlook for soyabean prices is continuing to look bearish, potentially weighing on European oilseed markets.

Both nearby (May-19) and Nov-19 Chicago soyabean futures have been following a largely bearish trend. Nov-19 soyabean futures are currently trading well below where they have been at this time of year, over the past five years.

Yesterday, Nov-19 soyabean closed at $321.38/t, down an additional $5.42/t from the previous week.

South American export (FoB) prices have also followed the same bearish trend, with FoB values falling over 9% from the start of the year.

Soay Fut

 

May there be an alternative to futures for domestic grain prices?

As at 12pm, European markets have continued to move lower, following last week’s rally.

Yet by 12pm May UK feed wheat futures have not yet moved amid limited trading.

Last week we looked at where and what UK futures represent as the bench mark old crop contract comes to an end. 

With UK May futures now in the tender period, we have seen large price swings and is less representative of the UK physical market.

Since 24 April, the first notice day for May futures, the value of the contract has swung from a low of £161.20/t to a high of £166.00/t and back down again.

The alternatives:

Within the Markets team at AHDB we collect a number of different price series to add clarity to the UK domestic market.

Corn Returns

A long standing price series of regional ex-farm values, averaged across a week’s trading. Corn Returns data is available here…  

Delivered Survey

A survey of numerous merchants and traders for delivered quotes to a range of key locations in England and Scotland for oilseed rape, feed wheat and barley plus milling wheat. Delivered Survey data is available here…

To sign up and receive the price series emails, contact cereals.mi@ahdb.org stating the survey you wish to receive. 

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