Grain Market Daily

Lydia Hamer


James Webster, Analyst, AHDB Market Intelligence, 02476 478844



US share of global ag exports to decline further over next 10 years

The USDA’S Long-Term Agricultural Projections were published yesterday and point to a mixed future for the US as a major arable exporter.  The US share of global wheat exports is forecast to decline by 2.1 percentage points over the next 10 years to 13.0% in 2027/28. The EU is anticipated to make the largest gain (over 11Mt) over the next decade, with wheat exports forecast to reach 39.7Mt in 2027/28.

For Russia, the nation on track to be the world’s largest exporter of wheat this season, exports are forecast to grow by just 0.9Mt over the next 10 years to 33.9Mt. This is explained, in the report, to be due to uncertainty over “export reliability”, driven by the impact of weather on yields. However, if yields in the Former Soviet Union regions continue their current path towards parity with the West, it is not inconceivable that Russian exports could continue to surpass the USDA forecasts as they have in recent years.

For maize, US exports are forecast to grow to 55.9Mt in 2027/28 from the estimated 48.9Mt this season. However, Brazil is expected to capture some of the US export market, resulting in the share of US maize exports dropping from 32.3% in 2017/18 to 29.6% in 2027/28. Despite the US being set to remain as the top maize exporting nation, South American exports are forecast to continue their growth. Combined exports from Argentina, Brazil and other South American nations are forecast to reach 80.2Mt in 2027/28, up from 65.6Mt in 2017/18.

Finally, for soyabeans, the US share of exports is anticipated to decline by 6.8 percentage points to 33.4% over the next 10 years, while the Brazilian share is anticipated to grow by 4.4 percentage points to 47.1%. .

With the share of US exports in major grain and oilseeds markets set to decline, exports are likely to be concentrated across fewer nations. Whilst not an immediate issue, the situation could prove challenging if there are any major jolts in the fundamentals.

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Round-up of 2017 fertiliser prices

According to the results of the new AHDB fertiliser price survey, prices of domestically produced Ammonia Nitrate (AN) ended the year up 3%, at £246/t. The uplift in the price of AN followed uncertainty over global supply availability, as reported in the October issue of the AHDB Fertiliser Outlook.

Historically, imported AN has priced below domestically produced AN and this has been observed again over the majority of the past year. The price of imported AN was £6/t, on average, less than domestically produced AN.

The full fertiliser price report including detail of movements in potassics and phosphates can be found here.

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